Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
If you wanna be ''in'', you're forced!
So if you choose to do something, you're being forced? Are you quite sure you thought that statement through?
If one chooses not to pander to the popular image, is one being forced not to conform?
If you want to be something you're not, you need to take steps to achieve it, in many cases.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
And I don't question all statistics.
Would you care to give an example of a statistic you aren't morally opposed to?
Statistics should not be about people. In politics, you don't need to make statistics, you can actually ask them what they want, i.e. direct democracy. But politicians fear direct democracy, because it's the only true democracy.
Statistics should not be enforced over people against their will. If somebody don't like to participate in statistics, that must be respected in every case. There mustn't be punishment.
Statistics is well applied upon unsentinent phenomena, as is radioactitity or other inanimate phenomena from nature or technology.
Beings with own will don't behave according to a statistical distribution, even if some people believe that or try to make us believe that. Beings with own will behave according to their own will and according to a certain purpose or likes or dislikes. Or they are forced to behave in a certain way. So, if you do a statistic, and they're forced to behave against their will, you will draw the wrong conclusions. A sentient being can even decide to do even things it dislikes for some reasons. So applying statistics will be very misleading and reduces a sentient being to a statistical process, which is insultant. And it doesn't help to decide about a useful solution to whatever problem.
In textbooks of statistics, you find tasks where they say ''... can be seen as whatever-distributed ...'', but they don't say why it can be seen that way.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
What I critizise is that people seem to thoughtlessly rely on statistics as a solution to all and everything.
Well, you'll be pleased to know this isn't the case as statistics can only provide an accurate view if the sample pool is large enough.
Yes, of course. But then, how often are there statistics in human related studies where the sample pool is relatively small? And they draw conclusions from that, anyway! This is exactly what I complain about.
Some years ago, as there was the threat that terrorists will use pox, and they planned to vaccinate huge parts of the population, I read that decades ago, they concluded that that vaccination must be done very early, i.e as a baby, because of four or five cases of complications. In that recent text, they acknowledged that that may be wrong because of the small size of the sample.
If e.g. a big pharma company tests its products which they have an interest to market, they very often drop unfitting results. For that reason, you never can be sure that you can actually conclude something form that statistics at all. As that ''medicaments'' are copyrighted most likely and as normal people can't do tests by themselves, nobody can proof that statistics wrong. So statistics are a good means to disguise unfitting and even harmful results. And you will hardly be able to proof that such a ''medicament'' caused your health problems.
There once was an US president who claimed that he only will believe in a statistic if he had faked it by himself.
Statistics is just playing around with numbers. Numbers must be interpreted, and certain people use statistics to backup their interpretation of numbers, especially in politics and social sciences, to achieve their goals.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
What I'm against is that a state enforces the participation of people in a census. Statistics is ok if you AREN'T OBLIGED to participate. In a census, you usually ARE OBLIGED to paritcipate. Performing interviews to get statistical data seems like someone is really interested in you, and that's quite seldom, and so many people are willing to participate. But they cannot know what is done with the informations you provide. And exactly that's the problem.
A census is taking information about the need of a country's population; is it any wonder that you must take part in it as a member
of that country?
How can you know what a country's population needs?
Lodhas wrote:
Would you prefer they be rude? You are obliged to take part, afterall; they may as well be.
Would you call that a free country? You are obliged to do or take part in so many things!
Lodhas wrote:
How many uses for the number of people living in a house can there possibly be?
How can I know? But there are some for sure, otherwise they wouldn't do the effort to ask. And if they have that number, they get the exclusive right to interpret it for whatever purpose.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
Concerning the T-shirt market, they don't seem to care about fashion, statistics or whatever. The malls, supermarkets, shops etc. here always get the same kind of T-shirt: They have different colours and ''imprints'', but always about California surfing, motor sports, and related sillyness, or just bear the name of the brand. And this for years now. And the ''witty slogans'' often are quite brain-burned, alas. That's why I only seldomly buy a new T-shirt. If you want to get something better, you must go to a concert of a group you like and buy related T-Shirts there, at a very high price. But then, you don't like to wear that T-Shirt in every-day life because it was that expensive.
That's not what you've been saying previously (see top of post).
???
Lodhas wrote:
These shops all get the same type of t-shirt because the damn things are popular and people buy them!
So you actually know what supermarkets/shops I'm talking about? I don't see that these types of T-shirts are that popular. They're just laying on the tables and don't get bought.
Lodhas wrote:
The only person saying you must like what's popular is you: if you don't like the slogans, don't buy them. If enough people don't buy them, they'll stop selling them and try something else.
There are not that much T-shirts with slogans. And I surely wouldn't buy one if I don't like the slogan. If enough people don't but them, they go on laying around on their tables until they're sold. At least that's my impression.
Lodhas wrote:
I've never had trouble simply buying a plain t-shirt with no designs on it, or a white one and a pack of dye. There are websites catering to cheap custom t-shirt designs or custom iron-on t-shirt designs you may do yourself.
Yes, I usually buy the white ones, too. But these are more underwear and not real T-shirts. I know about those websites, but I'm in a situation where I can't effort to do that kind of stuff or simply to dye it.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
Another exemple: Nowadays, you don't get cheep white underwear anymore. People don't like black underwear, but they only offer black.
The vast majority of people I know would disagree with that.
In the next few lines I've told you that I actually meant that I don't get white underwear of my favorite brand or at least of a brand where the underwear is the way I like it.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
The tables are full of black underwear. If I want white, I have to buy brands I don't like. They also only offer black or at least dark socks. And if you complain -- and I wasn't the only one -- they tell you that that special supermarket gets its goods from the general office/headquater, and that the markets respectively don't have any influence about what they get.
And that's quite true; the individual markets are ran by a head office, so complain to them.
Sorry, that's not fair. There're sales assistents to serve you. It would be the easiest way for both sides if they'd pass their experiences with their custormers to the head office. Why do they require me to send a letter or e-mail to the head office which most likely didn't get read anyways? Don't they like to serve their customers well? Supposedly, the customer 's king! Ok, we've dropped monarchy for a while, now.
I once was told by a sales person that he already complained at the head office because of the same thing I complained at him, but that they ignored his proposals, too. So, from my experiences, they're ignoring every feedback form their customers. Buy it or leave it! They don't need statistics!
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
Yes, I once had to buy an item I didn't like. Yes, I usually search a couple of shops, but usually, the assortment is not that high. And forget about a tailor or making it yourself. Only very few people can make clothes by themselves.
You must either live in the-back-of-beyond or have a very narrow aesthetic taste.
Things are not that easy! I had to learn that, too.
Lodhas wrote:
It's not a difficult skill to aquire... Sure a career tailor is going to be better than a dabbling amateur, but your average pleb can't tell the difference.
What are you talking about?
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
Fashion itself is an attempt-at-public-conformity! If you want to be ''en vogue'', i.e. ''in'', you must comply to the current fashion. This means that you NEED to buy new stuff every couple of month, otherwise you're ''out'' automatically. If you're not conform, you're ''out''! As long as it is just a matter of fashion, it is harmless. But there are less harmless and even very harmful instances of enforcement of public conformity, see my ''residual risk'' link.
And if you don't want to conform, you don't have to!
If you don't participate in a census, you need to conform, if you don't want to get punished. That's why I told that in fashion, being conform is harmless.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
And, honestly, if you have ''computed'' some ''average group interest'', the interests of the individuals respectively are just deviations of that average value. You can define some ''normal'' deviant interests if they are within a certain ''sigma-environment'' around the ''average''. So, doing statistics always gives you the average and the ''standard-deviation'' and therefore a mathematical notion of ''normality''. But, concerning sentient beings, what is ''normal''? This question cannot be answered. Remember your childhood: Your mother e.g. most likely argued like that: Why don't you want to wear the (insert the colour here) T-shirt, all the others wear that colour, too. But actually, only a few of your friends wore T-shirts of that colour. These were the ones to whom she refered to as ''normal''. This way, you can use statistics to manipulate. Once you have established the ''norm'', the ''normal'', who wants to be ''unnormal'', who is encouraged enough to deviate form the norm?
Clearly, you can! If you know much about evolution you'd realise that being a deviation from the norm. is not a bad thing by default, ...
Sure? Most mutations are letal, I think, maybe don't do any harm for some reasons, e.g. if the affected area is ''commented out'', see
C-value paradox. And concerning evolution, there cannot be deviations from the norm, as there is no norm. Norm is what the human observer defines or interpretes into it.
Lodhas wrote:
... but the cost of trying to cater to every individual would either send companies out of business or force them to up their prices and cater to the rich.
We don't talk about fulfilling every individuals special wishes here. We talk about offering cheep and usable clothes.
Lodhas wrote:
Perhaps because you dislike the colour? You just told me you dislike many of the slogans on t-shirts these days; are you now telling me that given the choice you'd wear it just because it was popular?
I told you that many of that ''witty'' slogans aren't that witty at all. They're just stupid. I don't need a slogan on my T-shirt. If something I like happens to be popular, why not?
Lodhas wrote:
I certainly never had my mother telling me to wear a different colour because the other kids where doing it; the other kids might have been less free-thinking about my dress-sense but sod 'em; it's my choice.
Lucky you! I only wanted to show you the mechanism how the ''norm'' or the ''majority'' is used to manipulate you. First you define a (behavioural) ''norm'', a standard, maybe by means of statistics, then you refer to it to press e.g. children to comply to that norm. There are much nastier mechanisms to achieve that, of course. And of course, not every norm or standard must be bad.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
You're someone interested in languages, otherwise you weren't here, right? So find it out. You can use google for that. I gave you one hint: one of the words means ''residual risk''. Look at the grey card. What do you think is it's contents? Obviously, it is a list of people with their birth dates, respectively. So it comes near to statistics. Note that all the list items are canceled out. Why should somebody canceling out names? See especially the text below the right upper corner of the upper left reddish box. And there are two key terms in the last two lines at the bottom of the card. You probably can guess what they mean even without translation.
If you've solved that riddle, maybe you'll understand.
Thankyou so much for that tedius excercise using online translators to read something you could have translated yourself in a matter of moments.
If you get told something, you won't accept it, most likely. You just would fight my claim. So better you experience it by your own. And for someone interested in languages, googling for some words shouldn't be that hard or tedious.
Lodhas wrote:
It proves nothing; anything can be twisted to dangerous or corrupt ends but ignoring the benefits of something over the damage some evil nut might do with it is foolish beyond all belief. Unless you feel we should ban cars, the internet, kitchen knives, phone directories or anything else someone can put to a use for which it was not intended?
It is not a ''proof'', but a hint! Of course, anything can be twisted, but you need not invite said evil nuts to spoil our lives and freedom. Freedom is usually lost step by step, so that people don't realize it. The way you argue is not very fair here. Cars, the internet, or kitchen knives etc. are different things, having special dangers each. I want to point out the special dangers of statistics. I already acknowleded that there are or could be some benefits, if you apply it approbriate, as everything. And I've pointed out the limits.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
There are such equations. If zelos ever had biology in school, he or she must know about that. If not, he or she can go to the Math department of the next university and get a book about Biological statistics. The equations mentioned describe the relation between pretators and its prey. It can be googled. According to Wikipedia, these equations are also used in economics for some decades now. Look at our world: There are financial crises in Europe, in America, and elsewhere in the world for sure. So obviously, relying to that kind of equations couldn't prevent world's economics to lay down in crises during the last decades.
So instead of asking those who may know more about the subject than he, he should get a book and look it up himself? Kind of defies the point of being on an internet forum, doesn't it?
Did zelos get useful answers? He titled this thread ''Mathematical Model for Conworlds''. This is very general and a bit ... not that much thought about. What kind of answer do you think he expect? One little ''world formula'' which explains all and everything? Does he like to summon
Laplace's demon?
Pierre Simon Laplace wrote:
We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.
Lodhas wrote:
If some moron was using predator-prey statistics for wild animals as a modle for human economic systems then I would agree that it's no surprise the world's went belly-up. Those statistics aren't exactly relevant, are they?
Obviously, these morons were professional economists.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
What zelos wants to do is applying some doubtful equations to a very coarsely worked out conplanet where he (most likely randomly) selects figures to feed the equations. (I doubt that we know enough about Earth to really apply such equations to our own planet.) This doesn't make much sense. The predator/prey equations only describe the related interaction between two species, but an ecosystem needs to have many species. According to Wikipedia, the application of these two equations requires four major constraints, which most likely he doesn't know if his conspecies fulfill these constraints. So what he likes to do seems rather pointless to me.
What zelos wants to do is refine his conworld; what you would have him do is leave it as it is, based on some moral ideal regarding his fictional species.
Yes, zelos wants to refine his conworld. But the way he wants to do that seems pointless to me.
Lodhas wrote:
According to the statistics you found using your computer, his modle won't work if he doesn't use statistical data already gathered about the topic? Makes sense to me; it's exactly what I've been saying. He's asking for this information for that exact purpose.
I didn't use my computer to find a statistic. But I wonder where he gets his statistical data from. It's a conworld, so how does he get the data he needs to feed up the formula?
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
What does that mean?
The number of differences between his conworld and the real world.
Ok.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
Really? Because he had used equations and computers? Do we still live in the 80s, where people believed that a computer can never make an error? How can you make predictions when you know that your equations have many constraints, and you hardly know about what will go on on that planet -- or what needs to go on when it really should work. Better to consult a clairvoyant!
Computers don't make errors; their human programmers do.
Sure? Floating power supply can cause errors or crashes, radioactivity can cause a bit to toggle, overclocking can cause errors. Testing a modern processor chip is a very tedious action, you will never be able to do it completely in a reasonable period of time. Ever heard from the
FDIV bug? Besides the errors caused by human programmers, designing a computer is a very complex process, so you should expect that there are errors in the computer hardware as well.
Lodhas wrote:
A fraud is of more use that the item of machinery you're currently using? Interesting.
No, using that machinery to ''make it more realistic'' is the fraud. Then it's better to consult a clairvoyant because everybody knows that's a fraud.
Lodhas wrote:
Tanni wrote:
If you set fixed data, you make it easier to proof that it will not work, e.g. zelos may forget about some dependencies between some basic variables, which others easily can point out.
I see, so a few mistakes are awful but a large number are ok because one can claim not to have bothered? The point is that making
fewer errors is better than making
more errors.
This presupposes that the equations for modelling of conworlds are valid in principle, then you can refine. But I doubt that such equations exist. You can use some equations, but that most likely only pretends a scientific approach, as they can't be applied because of the complexity of the task.
He might select two species and try to carefully modell their relations based on that predator/prey equations, but then he should have titled that thread somewhat more fittingly. But asking for a mathematical model for conworlds ...